We’re Ignoring the Real Reason Barbie Might Dominate the Box Office

Barbenheimer is nearly upon us. On July 21, two highly anticipated movies will be released on the very same day: Barbie, Greta Gerwig’s movie about the world’s most iconic doll (which we previewed on the cover of this magazine) will face off against Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan’s epic about the creation of the atom bomb. Unless your access to the internet has been totally cut off, you’re probably aware that this is happening. Maybe you’ve seen the Barbenheimer memes, often juxtaposing an explosion of Barbie pink next to, well, a real explosion. Or you’ve already bought a T-shirt featuring Margot Robbie’s Barbie tipping her cowboy hat to Cillian Murphy’s J. Robert Oppenheimer. A lively debate has ensued on Twitter as to how to best order a double feature: Is Barbie better as a palate cleanser after a World War II film? Or does Barbie feel more like a daytime romp and Oppenheimer suited for a nighttime watch?

All the chatter could be a sign of life for Hollywood as the usual subjects that buoy the box office—superheroes (The Flash), fast cars (Fast X), and animation (Elemental)—have fallen short of their projected profits. For months prognosticators have struggled to figure out how much Barbie might earn. There aren’t too many movies like it: Its protagonist has major name recognition but isn’t part of an existing franchise; the movie is a big-budget spectacle from a director who has, until recently, delivered smaller, thoughtful films about women’s inner lives; big-budget movies with a primarily female cast don’t come around that often. But now initial estimates of a $45 million opening weekend have nearly doubled. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer is still tracking in the $40 million range—a robust total for an adult drama in 2023. Nolan has an excellent record at the box office, but given this particular film’s three-hour runtime and R-rating, the idea that Barbie will come out on top has firmly taken hold.

It’s safe to attribute some of Barbie’s anticipated success to an onslaught of marketing from Mattel and Warner Bros. You cannot cross a street in New York, London, or Sydney without spotting a bus or billboard with Robbie’s face. Mattel has partnered with brands ranging from Bloomingdale’s to Ruggable to Pinkberry to roll out Barbiecore clothing, home decor, and even frozen yogurt. But the real secret to Barbie’s potential box office success has less to do with pink products than its subject and intended audience: Very few movies manage to cater to women without condescending to them.

In today’s fractured moviegoing landscape, that remains a rare feat. Even as representation of all types in Hollywood is improving, the kinds of movies in which women star aren’t stereotypically girly—for better or worse. Only 33% of the top 100 grossing films in 2022 featured female protagonists to begin with, and many of those movies slotted into the sorts of genres that typically cater to men: The Woman King is a historical action epic that happens to star women; Everything Everywhere All at Once is a multiversal movie stuffed with fight scenes that happens to center a mother and daughter; Scream 6 is a sequel to a classic horror flick. The intent with those movies is to reach as broad an audience as possible. They’re all solid to excellent movies. They are also, frankly, devoid of the color pink.