Box Office: ‘Invisible Man’ Opens With $1.65M Thursday

Universal’s The Invisible Man got off to a promising start last night, earning $1.65 million in Thursday previews. That’s 49% below the $2.7 million earned by The Mummy three years ago, a preview gross which led to a $31 million opening weekend. If Leigh Whannell’s chiller follows suit, we’re looking at a $19 million debut weekend. However, Split opened with $40 million after a $2 million Thursday gross, a scenario which would give Invisible Man $33 million for the weekend. I’m guessing this film will end up somewhere between those two extremes, but an over-performance wouldn’t shock me in the least.
While the Tom Cruise horror actioner cost around $120 million and was expected to launch a cinematic universe, Blumhouse’s R-rated Elisabeth Moss vehicle cost around $8 million. The Mummy, which spent much of its running time setting up a “Dark Universe,” opened to poor reviews and indifferent word-of-mouth before crashing with an $81 million domestic gross. Invisible Man has earned rave reviews (92% fresh with a 7.55/10 average critic scores) on Rotten Tomatoes and much in the way of positive online/social media buzz. Bad Boys for Life and Sonic the Hedgehog both overperformed partially due to surprisingly positive reviews dropping just before opening weekend.
Conversely, just in case I’m wrong, we should note two variables. First, Warner Bros. and DC Films’ Birds of Prey earned strong reviews but ended up opening with just $33 million, well below expectations, and has now earned just $74.682 million in 21 days of domestic release. Two, along with Moss not necessarily being a “butts in seats” movie star, the subject matter could turn audiences away. As a general rule, female-led movies that emphasize the everyday horrors of being a woman in the world haven’t been doing very well of late. Think Rough Night and Snatched versus Girls Trip and Ocean’s 8.
The very thing that makes Leigh Whannell’s horror movie sting (its use of the title character as a metaphor for a shared trauma of half the world’s population) is the very thing that may render it “not escapist” in the eyes of the same moviegoers who stayed away from Black Christmas last December. In terms of projections, even an under-performance this weekend would see Invisible Man earning more than this weekend then Black Christmas earned ($10.429 million domestic) in total. That’s not a prediction, just a nagging worry in the back of my mind. Invisible Man has earned much better reviews than the above-noted examples.
If we’re being optimistic, then the aforementioned rave reviews, strong buzz and easy-to-explain pitch (abusive survivor apparently gets haunted by her presumed-dead ex who seems to have made himself invisible) and status as (by default) the first “big” horror movie since It Chapter Two (all due respect to Doctor Sleep) will help the film open closer to Happy Death Day ($26 million) and The Visit ($25 million) than Truth or Dare ($17 million). I dare not hope for numbers akin to Get Out ($33 million) or Split ($40 million), but the former is vaguely possible.