Universal\u2019s The Invisible Man got off to a promising start last night, earning $1.65 million in Thursday previews. That\u2019s 49% below the $2.7 million earned by The Mummy three years ago, a preview gross which led to a $31 million opening weekend. If Leigh Whannell\u2019s chiller follows suit, we\u2019re looking at a $19 million debut weekend. However, Split opened with $40 million after a $2 million Thursday gross, a scenario which would give Invisible Man $33 million for the weekend. I\u2019m guessing this film will end up somewhere between those two extremes, but an over-performance wouldn\u2019t shock me in the least.
\nWhile the Tom Cruise horror actioner cost around $120 million and was expected to launch a cinematic universe, Blumhouse\u2019s R-rated Elisabeth Moss vehicle cost around $8 million. The Mummy, which spent much of its running time setting up a \u201cDark Universe,\u201d opened to poor reviews and indifferent word-of-mouth before crashing with an $81 million domestic gross. Invisible Man has earned rave reviews (92% fresh with a 7.55\/10 average critic scores) on Rotten Tomatoes and much in the way of positive online\/social media buzz. Bad Boys for Life and Sonic the Hedgehog both overperformed partially due to surprisingly positive reviews dropping just before opening weekend.
\nConversely, just in case I\u2019m wrong, we should note two variables. First, Warner Bros. and DC Films\u2019 Birds of Prey earned strong reviews but ended up opening with just $33 million, well below expectations, and has now earned just $74.682 million in 21 days of domestic release. Two, along with Moss not necessarily being a \u201cbutts in seats\u201d movie star, the subject matter could turn audiences away. As a general rule, female-led movies that emphasize the everyday horrors of being a woman in the world haven\u2019t been doing very well of late. Think Rough Night and Snatched versus Girls Trip and Ocean\u2019s 8.
\nThe very thing that makes Leigh Whannell\u2019s horror movie sting (its use of the title character as a metaphor for a shared trauma of half the world\u2019s population) is the very thing that may render it \u201cnot escapist\u201d in the eyes of the same moviegoers who stayed away from Black Christmas last December. In terms of projections, even an under-performance this weekend would see Invisible Man earning more than this weekend then Black Christmas earned ($10.429 million domestic) in total. That\u2019s not a prediction, just a nagging worry in the back of my mind. Invisible Man has earned much better reviews than the above-noted examples.
\nIf we\u2019re being optimistic, then the aforementioned rave reviews, strong buzz and easy-to-explain pitch (abusive survivor apparently gets haunted by her presumed-dead ex who seems to have made himself invisible) and status as (by default) the first \u201cbig\u201d horror movie since It Chapter Two (all due respect to Doctor Sleep) will help the film open closer to Happy Death Day ($26 million) and The Visit ($25 million) than Truth or Dare ($17 million). I dare not hope for numbers akin to Get Out ($33 million) or Split ($40 million), but the former is vaguely possible.\n<\/div>\n
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